When we finally get to the last two weeks of the season, that’s when I like to get serious about figuring out playoff scenarios for each district.
It takes a little more math than I like and a few calls to check on tiebreakers, but it also can be fun in a weird way to figure out which teams are officially in and which teams still have a prayer even when it looks bleak.
I’m stingy with granting playoff berths. There’s always a couple area teams who are basically in (Windthorst for example), but I won’t give you an “x” by your name in the standings unless you’re 100 percent good to go.
So here’s a comprehensive playoff scenario section for each area 11-man district:
IN: Denton Guyer, WFHS
OUT: Lake Dallas, Brewer.
IN WITH A WIN: Rider (Byron Nelson would need a win and Rider win)
PRACTICALLY OUT: Azle (There are still chances for both Denton and Azle to make it, although the Broncos’ path is better. Still, Denton would need to win out over Rider and Nelson. So don’t hold your breath. Azle would need a three-way tie at 3-4 for fourth place, but even then, it would have to break just right with tiebreakers).
HOW I SEE IT PLAYING OUT: Rider and Nelson both clinch spots this week. Then WFHS-Rider will have something more on the line besides bragging rights – the winner will get the top Div. II seed.
IN: Graham, Vernon, Hirschi
IN WITH A WIN: Burkburnett-Iowa Park winner
HOW I SEE IT PLAYING OUT: There’s not a lot of drama here. The Burkburnett-Iowa Park winner gets the last playoff berth. The loser can pull a Week 10 upset and it won’t matter because the best they can do is a two-way tie at 1-3 and they’d still have lost the head-to-head matchup.
DISTRICT 5-2A DIVISION I
IN: Pilot Point, Whitesboro.
WIN AND THEY’RE IN: Boyd (The Yellow Jackets are looking good but if they lost badly to Paradise – not likely – a three-way tie situation comes into effect).
WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN: Even if Bowie loses to Pilot Point to drop to 1-4, it still has a shot if Whitesboro beats Callisburg and Boyd beats Paradise – both of which are favored to happen. That’s because a Bowie win over Callisburg in Week 10 would make both teams 2-4 with Bowie advancing on head-to-head. If Paradise were to beat Ponder in Week 10, it would force a three-way tie at 2-4. Right now Callisburg is a +14, Bowie a -3 and Paradise is in the books with a -11. So Bowie will need to beat Callisburg in the season finale by nine points to be safe unless it knocks off Pilot Point.
DISTRICT 5-2A DIVISION II
IN: Nocona, Jacksboro
NOT LOOKING GOOD AT ALL: Holliday.
WIN AND THEY’RE IN: Henrietta.
THE SKINNY: The reason why 0-3 Holliday has a worse chance than 0-3 City View is because the Eagles would lose any three-way 2-3 tiebreaker because they’ve fallen to both Henrietta and Alvord. Henrietta is almost in, but Alvord wouldn’t necessarily clinch by beating the Bearcats because there’s a scenario where Alvord, Henrietta and City View finish at 2-3 and then it comes down to points. Holliday can either hope to finish by itself in fourth at 2-3 (which would require beating City View and Jacksboro and having Alvord lose out) or they’d still have a slim chance at a three-way tie for fourth at 1-4 with Alvord and City View. But since they’re a -14 right now, that seems like a reach.
DISTRICT 3-A DIVISION I
PRACTICALLY IN: Windthorst (Olney would have to not only beat Quanah this week and Archer City next week, but max out against the Indians. Then Quanah maxes out against Windthorst. That puts the Trojans at -1 in a three-way tie at 2-2.
OUT: No one, although it doesn’t look very good for Archer City and Olney.
WIN AND THEY’RE IN: Quanah. That would also bump Windthorst (on a bye) into the guaranteed range.
WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN: The last two playoff spots get locked up with wins by Seymour and Quanah. Even if Archer City pulls off an upset of the Panthers, it’ll need Olney to beat Quanah. Because the Wildcats can’t get in a three-way tie with Quanah and Windthorst because it lost to both of them. There’s a chance of Olney getting into a three-way tie at 2-2, but I’ll worry about that once the Cubs win a game.
DISTRICT 8-A DIVISON II
PRACTICALLY IN: Era. There’s a chance of the Hornets getting in a three-way tie for two playoff spots with Munday and Electra at 3-2. Right now, Era is a +14 in that tiebreaker so as long as Munday doesn’t max out against Era and then the Moguls lost to Electra by the maximum, the Hornets are in.
WIN AND THEY’RE IN: Era. Munday can win and still lose to Electra and lose out on a tiebreaker. Now if Electra loses to Perrin-Whitt, the Moguls will be in with a win.
THE SKINNY: Perrin-Whitt is holding on for dear life. There’s still a chance of a three-way tie for the last playoff spot with Munday and Electra at 2-3, but that seems like a long shot. It’s beginning to look like Munday-Electra will decide a playoff spot the last week.