We’re at the point of the season where you can start picking games based on previous results against common opponents.
For instance, Vernon blasted Breckenridge by 45 points a couple weeks ago. Now it’s Graham’s turn. If you think the Steers are just as good if not better than the Lions, then you’ll assume a Graham blowout.
This certainly isn’t foolproof. Teams may match up better against some teams than others. And sometimes a team just lays a clunker.
But it can help give you an idea on who to choose in some cases. Although what only really matters is who executes like they’re capable of on Friday nights.
With Rider and WFHS taking the week off, a couple other city teams put unbeaten records on the line in their toughest games to date.
Here are my High School Football picks:
Hirschi at Decatur – It’s really hard to pick against Hirschi after the Huskies have scored 138 points in the past two weeks. Its defense will face the best QB it has seen in TCU-bound Grayson Muehlstein. And the Eagles (whose OC is ex-WFHS coach Jayson Lavender) are the best team Hirschi has faced, beating Springtown and Burkburnett in successive weeks.
All that having been said, I like the mojo the Huskies are playing with. They’ve got a lot of confidence and I know Coach Slater doesn’t have them looking past this game. Hirschi just has so many weapons it can beat you with, too. So I’ll go with the Huskies by 10.
Seymour at City View – I expect a lot of points in this game. And I’m anxious to see strength vs. strength. City View has allowed only 70 rushing yards total in three games. And the Panthers have been averaging a tidy 289 per game on the ground.
The Panthers gave up a few big runs against Electra’s Michael Bishop last week and can’t afford to let D.J. Coursey to do the same thing this week. I’ll side with the Panthers in a competitive shootout.
Holliday at Vernon – The Lions are going to win this game, I feel pretty safe writing that. But I’m interested in how the Eagles bounce back after getting routed last week. It’s rough for Holliday to get two good 5-3A teams in a row, but I think it’ll show a lot of fight in this one. Still, the Lions should win by a decent margin.
Burkburnett at Bridgeport – Watch out for Marquis Askew in this one. Another powerful runner (Iowa Park’s Dakota Schweiger) had 165 yards and 3 TDs on only seven carries against the Bulls last week. Askew will probably get at least 20 carries. I think this game has a lot of points and it should be close, but I’ll give the edge to the Bulldogs, who should have beaten Decatur last week.
Iowa Park at Mineral Wells – I like how the Hawks are playing on defense. I don’t like how Mineral Wells has fared against 5-3A teams this year (51-7 loss to Graham; 68-0 loss to Hirschi). Playing in its first Friday game of the year, Iowa Park wins by double digits.
Graham at Breckenridge – Like I mentioned before, Vernon already blasted the Buckaroos. The Steers could have a smidge of a letdown after coming off such a big game against Wylie, but I still think they win very easily.
Bowie at Alvord – It’s a tougher game for the Jackrabbits than I would have thought thanks to Alvord’s nice win against Krum this week. Here’s a random note: Bowie QB Garland McCoy hasn’t thrown an INT in 62 attempts, the most passes without one in the area. If the Jackrabbits can control Joe Randall – and I believe they can – then Bowie evens its record at 2-2 going into district.
Henrietta at Quanah – I wasn’t surprised with Quanah losing last week. The Indians are still breaking in some young guys and based on stats, the passing offense isn’t clicking like you would have thought with a crop of new WRs. Clay Robertson has 277 passing yards in three games – he averaged more per game than that at this point of 2012. Henrietta should pose some problems with more depth, but I’ll pick the Indians like I did last week. And I won’t be surprised if the Bearcats win.
Nocona at Ponder – It’s another one of those common opponent games. Both have lost to Muenster. Ponder lost 35-6; Nocona lost 31-12. After being held in check in the Indians’ first two games, RB John Jennings ran wild last week against Archer City. I don’t think it will be easy, but I think the Indians pick themselves up a decent road win.
Windthorst at Millsap – Don’t know much about Millsap except it’s been struggling for a while and the Trojans had no problems last year when they met. I expect Windthorst to get back in the win column Friday.
Petrolia at Archer City – A very interesting matchup here with the Pirates playing some good ball. If I remember correctly, Petrolia won this by a point last year. Archer City has lost its last two games, but both against 5-2A schools (City View and Nocona). I think that tougher competition has gotten them ready for a game like this. Wildcats by 7.
Santo at Olney – Santo usually isn’t bad and has fielded some competitive teams. Olney’s offense didn’t have much success last week at Jacksboro, but the Cubs are definitely better than they were a year ago. Olney is certainly capable of breaking its 14-game losing streak, but the safe pick is Santo in a close one.
Electra at Haskell – I expect Michael Bishop and the Tigers to run wild against Haskell. It’s not a gimmie, but it’s a game Electra should win if it plays like it should.
Bronte at Munday – It’s a battle of winless teams. It’s also a rematch from an amazing playoff game I covered four years ago.
That still remains one of my favorite postseason games to witness. Back to this one, I’ll pick the Moguls, who should get their first when in the post-Dee Paul era.