Archive for the ‘Zach Duncan’ Category

I’m here out at Memorial Stadium, where it’s misty, cold but at least not that windy.

Packed pressbox up in here as we have Abilene’s Evan Ren, Munday’s Jay White, Ryan Mills (who works for Childress paper but is covering it for Knox County), MSU SID Trey Reed and Quanah coach Jason Sims.

I think we’re in for a good one!

FIRST QUARTER

* Geez, that didn’t take long. Dee Paul returns opening kickoff 86 yards for a touchdown. PAT is blocked, Munday up 6-0 12 seconds into game.

* Windthorst has a couple nice runs by Hoegger; his 37-yarder sets up first down at Munday 18. But Hoegger misses Schreiber on 4th and 3 on the 11. Munday ball.

* Munday gets a 22-yarder by Paul but drive stalls. Neskorik has a nice 41-yard punt.

* Braydon Ingram powers for an 18-yard gain, then Berardi goes for 7 yds on 4th and 2. Windthorst on Munday 21 with about 4 minutes left.

* Right after first down, Munday’s Blanford Paul sacks Hoegger for a 14-yard loss. Drive ends up stalling. Munday gets ball on own 9 — drives to midfield but sack by Stallcup and L. Veitenheimer ends drive.

* We’ve got our first turnover and it’s not Munday. With 7:34 to play in half and Trojans driving, Hoegger makes bad pitch after Munday defends option well. Neskorik recovers and Moguls take over on Munday 47.

* Big holding penalty on Munday after Dee Paul hits Neskorik (the fullback ran a deep pass!) for a 64-yard TD. But it’s wiped out ande Moguls punt. Windthorst sets up on own 28 with 6:18 left in half.

* Windthorst has 4th and 10 on Munday 32 with 3:39 left in half. Third-down attempt was halfback pass by Berardi that was broken up by Taylor and almost picked off by D.J. Castorena. Big play coming up.

* Did I mention only six points in the first half — wild. And Munday gets a big stop when Stallcup can’t come up with a jump ball.

* Neskorik’s leg is helping Munday big-time. Hasa 60-yard punt that changes field position.

* Have either of these teams punted so much this year? Munday holds, forces punt with less than a minute, then goes into halftime after running a couple plays.

* Halftime stats courtesy of Trey Reed: Munday 18-56 rushing, 1-5-0, 15 passing yards; Windthorst 25-122 rushing; 2-6-0, 34 passing.

* Two big plays to start third quarter. Berardi has about a 50-yard return but fumbles and Blanford Paul recovers. But Dee Paul fumbles on the very next play and Berardi recovers. So Trojans ball midfield.

* Windthorst gets first down on fourth and 2 on Munday 23 after getting Moguls to jump.

* Holy Crap! Berardi scores on 18-yard TD catch but Munday’s Garrett Weaver returns kickoff 80 yards for TD.

* Now 21-7 Munday after Dee Paul 17-yard TD run. Wow!

* Hoegger has the Trojans driving but is picked off by D.J. Castorena at the 11-yard line. Moguls have the ball at the start of fourth quarter.

* For those keeping track at home, WIndthorst is losing turnover battle 3-1. After winning it 11-2 last three meetings. Good thing is Trojans get a stop and will start on own 38 with 9:40 left.

* Bad news for the Moguls — Dee Paul limps off the field. Either a cramp or an ankle. Either way, Moguls need him on field.

* WIndthorst gets big break when Munday fumbles on own 13, but Hoegger throws pick.

* Just when you think it’s ballgame, WIndthorst recovers a Dee Paul fumble on his first play back in. Hoegger throws TD pass to Stallcup — 21-14 with 6:20 left.

*WWWWWWOOOOOOOWWWWWW!!!!!!!! Weaver returns kickoff 94 yards for third Mogul touchdown.

* Trying to do five things at once — sorry for lack of updates. Windthorst scores, but Paul answers with 53-yd TD with 2:46 to go. Munday up 35-21. This one looks over.

* Hoegger scores from 8 yards out; Munday now up 35-28 with 0:57 left. Onside kick coming for Trojans.

I’m about an hour away from heading off to Plainview for tonight’s Quanah-Holliday doubleheader.

I’m also already off to a 0-1 start after whiffing on the Electra pick last night.

But it’s all good. I’ve got a full tank of gas, a book on CD and a computer bag full of stat sheets for what should be a long weekend.

I’ve covered four playoff games in three days before and three in two days. But never have I pulled off back-to-back doubleheaders before.

So if I drift into unconsciousness in the second half of Windthorst’s game tomorrow night, you’ll know why. Anyway, let’s get to predictions:

* Rider vs. EP Chapin — I’d like to take these El Paso teams seriously, I really would. And if one of them actually beats one of our teams, I probably will. Until then, Raiders by 20.

* Holliday vs. Spearman – One of the best games I’ve ever covered happened between these two teams during a snowstorm in Canyon back in 2004. Double OT thriller. The Eagles defense will make this less thrilling. Holliday wins 28-7.

* Nocona vs. Abernathy – Last night I didn’t give a 9-1 Bronte team enough credit because I had written off their easy district. So maybe I’m doing that again this week. Who knows? And maybe when I saw a box score with non-playoff team Floydada rushing for 330 yards against them, I thought they’ll have problems with Nocona’s two-headed attack. Either way, Indians in an upset here: Nocona 27, Abernathy 21.

* Seymour vs. Sunray – Possible upset alert on this game too. Last year when Stamford got the 4-A No. 2 seed, it faced high-powered Canadian. This is an easier draw for the Panthers but only because Sunray beat Canadian this year. You kinda never know which Seymour team is going to show up, but I go with Sunray in a very tight game.

* Quanah vs. Sundown – If the Indians can stop the run, then they’ll have a chance in this one. But I’ll go with the 10-0 team in this one.

* Munday vs. McCamey – Should be the closer one of the two 8-A games in Sweetwater this week. And by close, I mean Moguls win by at least two touchdowns, probably more.

* Windthorst vs. Iraan – Can’t see the Trojans overlooking anyone right now. They’ll roll by 28.

Sorry these are a little late. I’m sure most people are already setting their sights on this week’s action. Been a busy week at work — which is a good thing because that means a lot of teams are still playing.

Factor that in with Nocona making it to state volleyball (they play at 3 p.m. today) and there’s a lot to be excited about.

Here are some quick thoughts on the opening weekend of the playoffs:

* Obviously Frenship was a pretty weak 10-0. Thought that might be the case, but you never know. I thought Frenship would lose to Rider in 2006 and it didn’t. The Raiders are set up for a nice run now.

* The 6-3A sweep came as no surprise. I thought Burkburnett did the best of the three. Bowie played poorly and Graham was outmatched. But Burk hung around and was in the game until the end. And if RB Devin Chafin is healthy, then who knows?

* Pretty huge wins for Nocona and Electra. I didn’t see them going three rounds deep, but both will certainly have chances to do so this weekend.

* Sounded like Henrietta QB Kolten Booher tried to give it a go but didn’t play much against Hamilton. I thought the injured ankle might really hurt the Bearcats’ chances of winning. Hamilton now has shut out Henrietta for eight playoff quarters and has won twice despite scoring a total of 16 points.

* Lots of possible all-area rematches next week: Windthorst-Electra; Nocona-Holliday; Throckmorton-Knox City and Bryson-Newcastle. How exciting would those be.

* I hate to say this, but for long-term possibilities, only Quanah and Seymour’s games against 10-0 teams are really intriguing. Wake me up for the Rider-Ryan, Windthorst-Munday and Idalou-Holliday state quarterfinals.

* Will make full predictions on Friday morning, but I’ll go ahead and pick the Electra game since it’s tonight. I’ve seen Bronte play more than respectably in playoff losses the last two years. But I can’t tell how much they’ve been tested. The Longhorns are the favorites and are the smart choice, but I’ll stay with the Tigers in a high-scoring game. 35-28.

It’s finally here. The playoffs. What we’ve been waiting for all season.

And it’s already over for two of our area teams — Graham and Bowie — who lost last night. A lot, lot more games are going on tonight.

It’s been a long week working on football previews for almost 20 games. And talking to each area coach, they believe their team will win the game.

But let’s face it — our area teams aren’t going 17-0 or whatever. So I’m going to give my thoughts from last night and then make predictions for the handful of area 11-man games. Here we go:

* So I don’t think Bowie played very well at all last night. Brownwood is pretty good. Stehl Ratliff has good vision and is a powerful runner who made a couple nice cuts against the Jackrabbits.

But Bowie had at least three drops and a costly fumbled kickoff, plus an INT that totally put the game away in the third quarter. These are mistakes that will put you in basketball season pretty quickly.

* Sounds like Graham’s defense kept Snyder’s Kennon Ward in check for almost a half last night. But you give the ball to a guy of Ward’s caliber 32 times, and eventually he’s going to break through.

* Saw the numbers for Graham QB Ben Davis and they looked good — 224 passing and 99 rushing. If Garrett Johnston can get healthy by next August coming off recent ACL surgery, there should be a pretty good QB competition in Young County.

* In the last two years, 5-3A is 5-0 against our 6-3A, with only one of those games being close. We’ll see if Burkburnett can turn that trend around tonight.

Now onto the picks:

RIDER AT FRENSHIP –Rider is a dangerous team these days, but it’s defense is going to have to play well against an unbeaten Frenship squad. In a close game like this, it’s hard not to go with the home team. Although a Rider win wouldn’t be surprising at the least.

BURKBURNETT vs. WYLIE –I think this could be close — maybe the closest of the 6-3A teams — but after watching a Brownwood team that lost to Wylie last night, I’m going to go with Wylie.

HENRIETTA vs. HAMILTON –A complete toss-up. I can see Henrietta winning if Kolten Booher is able to run effectively on his ankle. If not, Hamilton will have an edge.

CRAWFORD vs. NOCONA –If the Indians can get in a groove on offense, then they’ll have a chance. But I don’t think Nocona’s defense will make quite enough stops.

QUANAH vs. STINNETT — From what I’ve heard, QB Clay Robertson is feeling doing really well since getting mono. A healthy Robertson makes it hard for me to pick against the Indians. Quanah by a touchdown.

SEYMOUR vs. NEW DEAL – It depends which Panthers team will show up. No one has been quite as up and down this year. Lost to Electra, beat Stamford. I think the Panthers play well tonight, which should result in a victory.

MUNDAY vs. RAWLS –This one will not be close. I don’t think the Moguls are overlooking anybody, and they are way more explosive. Munday by a lot.

ELECTRA vs. HAMLIN — Another toss-up game with completely different offenses. I’m picking the Tigers for two reasons — 1) Last spread team that throws the ball a bunch they played, Electra beat Seymour. And 2) I think playing Windthorst and Munday will pay off for the Tigers.

The final week of the regular season is here and there are a bunch of big games on the horizon.

Because of that, we’ll preview those a little bit more today and not worry as much about such games like Iowa Park-Vernon or Windthorst-Perrin-Whitt.

Start from the biggest and working the way down:

* Rider at WFHS: The TRN football roundtable between Andy, Nick and I talked a bunch about this one, but my biggest point in this one is Rider will win by multiple touchdowns if it can get pressure by not having to blitz. The fewer guys they rush at Dylan Sheffield, the better for the Raiders. With a couple injuries in the secondary, Rider will probably want to drop LBs into coverage to take away the short WFHS routes. But if Sheffield has time, well we’ve seen what happens there. Rider should be able to score a lot against WFHS, but the Coyotes have the offensive firepower to turn it into a shootout. I think the Coyotes will hit a couple big plays, but I think much like Lake Dallas did, Rider makes enough defensive plays (sacks, interceptions) to win this one. Score: Rider 49, WFHS 28.

Nocona at City View:Much like the game above, winner is in and loser is out. Two of the area’s best runners — D.J. Brown and Tate Fenoglio — are going to make their mark in this game. Both very well could have more than 200 yards. But this game will be won by the defenses (which one prevents less big plays) and the backfield’s secondary options. QB Hayden Hill and RB D.J. Coursey have been important to their teams this year, but Hill is really hitting his stride right now. I think this is a toss-up game, but I’ve talked to multiple people who’ve played both of these teams, and Nocona seems to be the consensus pick. Final score: Nocona 34, City View 28

Bowie at Burkburnett: Either we’re going to have a three-way tie in 6-3A or Bowie will win outright. As far as playoffs go, a Burkburnett win by 1-6 points makes Graham the top Div. II seed. Seven or more puts Bowie as the top seed. And the top seed is much more desirablethan facing Snyder. Burkburnett will be the favorite at home and the Bulldogs will want to bounce back in a big way after the Graham loss last week. I’m picking Bowie, although I don’t feel great about it. I don’t want to see a three-way tie and I think Bowie going 5-0 would be a tremendous feat. Plus, defense won out against offense last week down in Graham. Final score: Bowie 21, Burkburnett 20.

Stamford at Olney:The 4-A Div. I standings show these teams tied at 1-2, but there is quite a big gap in talent. Stamford has great skill at QB with Hagen Hutchinson and at WR with Jessie Ramos. Remember, the Bulldogs beat Holliday in non-district. Olney will try to do what Archer City and Seymour did to have success against Stamford — keepaway with Alex Vega. But I think the Cubs could fall behind early, making it tough to stay ground-oriented. Final score: Stamford 42, Olney 14.

Well, there’s only one more week left in the season. I hear a lot of people say it seemed like it began yesterday.

But I think for all the coaches putting in the really long weeks (and the sports writers working not near as long but still keeping very busy), it hasn’t exactly flown by.

Fear not, burnout. Because the playoffs will offer a rejuvenation of sorts. And this time around, there’s not a whole lot of numbers crunching to figure out playoff scenarios. Works for me.

Basically three games — WFHS-Rider; Nocona-City View; Stamford-Olney — are winner-take-all affairs. The other scenarios out there — like Archer City still having a chance at the playoffs if it beats Munday by 14 — just aren’t going to happen.

Also, Bowie-Burkburnett will decide if the Jackrabbits win the 6-3A title outright or if there is a three-way tie between both of them and Graham.

More thoughts from the weekend:

* I knew Graham could beat Burkburnett at Newton Field. Graham was my 6-3A pick for the district title, even after losing four non-district games in a row (let’s forget how I chose 0-4 Vernon to make the playoffs). But I didn’t have the stones to pick the Steers in the paper last week. I think a closer-than-normal game against the Lions the week before scared me away.

* One of the area’s best coaching  jobs has been by Bowie’s Dylan Stark. But another one that has slipped under the radar is the job Keith Ivy is doing out there in Electra. The Tigers were 6-34 the past four seasons but now are 5-5 and will be in the playoffs this year for the first time since 2006. That win against Seymour was impressive, and Electra thumped Archer City the other day with its playoff hopes on the line.

* Speaking of the Wildcats, I just didn’t see 2-8 (they will lose to Munday) coming. Injuries piled up and not a whole lot has gone right for Josh Castles this year. I know he’s glad he is back in his hometown, but it’s been a rough year.

* Henrietta clinched its ninth straight playoff berth by beating Nocona. Every year the Bearcats figure out a way to get it done. QB Kolten Booher has had two monster games in back-to-back weeks as the offense looks like it is kicking it into gear for the stretch run.

* Speaking of Henrietta, last week I mentioned something about Coach West and the three onside kicks. Then I got a hilarious phone call from the Bearcats coaches. Needless to say, it wasn’t West who called the onsides. I’m going to keep the assistant’s name anonymous, but I will say he’s one of the best at what he does in the area.

* Can WFHS beat Rider? Yes, it can. And losing Blake Brom hurts a Raider secondary that will have its hands full. But I’ll still pick the Raiders. They’re playing very well offensively, and it just seems like everything will have to go right for the Coyotes in this one.

* I may end up blogging more about this tomorrow, but there seems to be a question in 6-3A as to how to break a three-way tie for the Div. II spots. I, and the Bowie coach, assumed with Burkburnett going big-school, the Jackrabbits would have the top seed based on head-to-head over Graham.

But Graham is saying that if Bowie was to lose to Burkburnett, whoever is leading the point tiebreaker should get first. So if Burk wins by 3, then Graham (+2) would get the top seed over Bowie (-1). Now if Burkburnett was to get top point total, they’d be thrown into Div. I — they are going there anyway — and then it reverts to head to head, giving Bowie the top spot.

Why is this a big deal? Because honestly, Snyder should be able to beat both Graham and Bowie in a playoff game. I think both coaches feel like they have a better shot at Brownwood. Stay tuned.

* I left Munday on Friday night thinking the Moguls have a chance to beat Windthorst. Will I pick them in the inevitable state quarterfinals matchup? No. But they match up better up front than last year, when I felt Windthorst would win the rematch handily. Friday’s score was 56-34, but the Moguls gave up two defensive touchdowns, kept one Windthorst scoring drive alive with a penalty and had a penalty nullify a touchdown.

Now I know it seems like the Moguls have made those mistakes before against a very tough Trojans defense, but if it can limit them the next time, it could pull off an upset come December.

* Playoff games that are going to happen but just need to be finalized: Henrietta-Hamilton and Abilene Wylie-Burkburnett. Both are rematches of 2010.

Usually at this time of year, it’s difficult to miss a bunch of games because by now you know the good squads from the bad ones.

But last week’s 17-game slate offered a few matchups that I felt were toss-ups. One-Legged Fade 41 won “Sack Zach” by getting 15 right — missing only the Graham and Hirschi wins.

I was in a group with three others that got 14 right. The one missed the most was Graham — only one person got that right.

Here are the season standings:

1. Me — 126

2. AreaFootballFan — 125

3. One-Legged Fade 41 — 122

4. Keystoner — 120

Denton at Rider – Raiders have played well last two times out, and I don’t expect that to change this time around. Rider by 20+.

WFHS at Denton Ryan –Colleague Andy Newberry gave WFHS QB Dylan Sheffield an over/under of 248 passing yards against the soon-to-be 4-4A champs. I’m leaning toward over, but I could be way off. The Coyotes must give him time to throw, something tough with FSU commit Mario Edwards at DE. Ryan by 25.

Hirschi at Vernon –Although it’s not a given yet, this could be the third straight year this matchup decides last place in 6-3A. The Lions have the area’s worst offense, but the Hirschi defense hasn’t really slowed down anybody lately. I like Vernon by 10.

Burkburnett at Graham –I smell an upset here, but I don’t have the guts to pick it. Or maybe I’m just playing it safe. I know Burkburnett will score probably three times at least, but I’m not so sure Graham’s offense can keep up. But it’s in Graham. Still, Bulldogs by a touchdown.

Iowa Park at Bowie – Still can’t say enough about those Jackrabbits. As one of 3A’s smallest schools and after an 0-2 start, Bowie is a game away from the playoffs. I think they got it done tonight — Bowie’s defense has been too good for IP to score enough to keep up.

City View at Holliday –Holliday will win this by 24-30 points, because Holliday, in mine and a lot of others’ opinions, is just that much better than everyone else in district. The thing I am anxious to see is if City View scores.

Henrietta at Nocona – I’m picking Henrietta because I’m a man of myword, and after I picked against the Bearcats last week, I told the Henrietta pressbox guys I’d go with them in this game. But honestly, a Nocona win wouldn’t be surprising. Should be a great game.

Jacksboro at Alvord – Loser gets last place in district. I’ll take the Bulldogs but don’t feel great about it.

Quanah at Panhandle –Quanah has impressed me this season (except for that egg laid against Munday — to be fair, they were without their QB), and the Indians did claim a huge district win last week. Still, I’ll go with the home team and eat my words if I’m wrong.

Olney at Haskell –Like Alvord-Jacksboro, this is for exclusion from the cellar. Haskell has the best district showing of the two (hanging with Seymour), and that’s the only reason I’ll go with them.

Albany at Seymour – Seymour pulled off one mild upset against Stamford a couple weeks ago. Can’t see them pulling another one. Lions by 14.

Petrolia at Collinsville – In the battle of Pirates, I’ll go with the home side by a bunch.

Windthorst at Munday –Here we go. The best game of what is a really good week. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I can’t pick Munday after covering last year’s games. Is that stupid logic? Some would say so. I say the Moguls make this a lot more interesting, but I like Windthorst by 10-14.

Archer City at Electra –A couple of knowledgeable people I’ve talked to say this should be a close game (which I expect) but they are giving the edge to the Tigers because they have more big-play ability. Since Electra is also at home, they’re the pick.

You just get the feeling that some districts are going to come down to the wire and others just aren’t.

Like in 6-3A. I have a pretty good feeling Burkburnett-Bowie will be for a district title, but other than that, I don’t think Week 10 will have much suspense.

But in 3-2A, I think we’re headed for a possible tiebreaker or at the very least, a Nocona-City View game that will determine a playoff spot.

Here are some other thoughts after Week 8:

* City View’s defense was manhandle by a Henrietta offense that hadn’t done much before last Friday. Hard for me to think they’ll keep the Eagles from scoring at least 3 or 4 times. And trust me, Holliday isn’t giving up more than maybe a touchdown.

* I was right about Holliday being 3-4 TDs better than everyone else in district.

* Not sure what Henrietta coach Byron West was doing by kicking a third onside kick attempt in the first half against City View. Especually with 50 seconds left in the half and the first two had failed. After talking to him afterward, I’m not sure he knew either.

* Not a real district surprise upset last week (I thought Henrietta-City View was a toss-up). And unless Burk or Bowie loses or if Seymour beats Albany, not sure it’ll happen this week, either.

* Big win for Quanah. If the Indians beat Panhandle this week, they’ll be district champs. That’s impressive considering how young they are.

* The Coyotes struggled offensively for the first time in a while against Lake Dallas. And Rider’s offense looked as good as it had all season against The Colony. Harder for me to think there will be an upset next weekend.

* This week is by far the best of the district slate. And I’d be saying that even if it was the first week of district and playoff spots/district titles weren’t on the line.

* Looks like another Hirschi-Vernon bout will determine last place. That’s three years in a row.

For the second straight week, I tied for the lead  but lost out on a tiebreaker. AreaFootballFan and I were the only ones to get 15 of 17 correct.

Here are the season totals:

1. Me — 112

2. AreaFootballFan — 111

3. One-Legged Fade — 107

4. Keystoner — 106

Next week we’ll look at district scenarios. For now, here’s this week’s picks:

Rider at The Colony – Rider should come out on top, but nothing is guaranteed in this district. Still, I give the Raiders the edge based on having two weeks to prepare.

Bowie at Hirschi – Hirschi may be able to crack Bowie’s defense a little bit, but I don’t think the Huskies will be able to keep Bowie’s offense from scoring about 25-28 points. Bowie wins this and almost locks up a playoff spot.

Burkburnett at Iowa Park — If IP wants to keep it close — and this game is often close when it shouldn’t be — then the Hawks must run off a 5 or 6-minute drive every quarter, and score on most of those. Just not so sure that can happen. Bulldogs by 14-20.

Graham at Vernon – The Steers can’t play crappy and win this game, and they’ll be without QB Garrett Johnston. But Vernon is not as tough defensively and has a little less offensive firepower. Side note: Only WFHS has rushed for fewer yards in the area than these two teams.

Holliday at Alvord – Not a question of who will win (Holliday by 28 or more), but two questions I have: Will Alvord score on the Eagles (probably, but it might be on backups)? and How many rushing yards will the Twilligear/Cole combo have (Fenoglio had about 350; Brown had more than 250 the last two weeks)?

City View at Henrietta – I see this as a toss-up. If Henrietta turns it over 3-4 times a game like it has the past two weeks, the Bearcats will lose. If City View can’t break 2-3 long TD runs (and the Mustangs didn’t in a 22-7 loss last year), then Henrietta wins. I’ll give a slight edge to City View, but I expect it to go down to the wire.

Nocona at Jacksboro – This could be a trap game for the Indians. City View played Henrietta well and did some good stuff against City View. But there’s only one Tate Fenoglio, and he is on Nocona’s side.

Clarendon at Quanah – I went back and forth on this one. Another toss-up. I’ll probably regret not going with the home team, but I think Clarendon’s just more experienced.

Seymour at Olney – Panthers probably won’t overlook Cubs after huge win last week and huge game against Albany next week. Seymour by at least 20.

Lindsay at Petrolia – Pirates need this one or playoff hopes are done. I think Petrolia can keep it close against a Lindsay team that isn’t as strong as in past seasons, but I like the Knights.

Electra at Windthorst – Trojans in a rout. They’ve been a machine against inferior opponents, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Munday at Perrin-Whitt – If the Moguls played hard the whole game, I have no doubts they could score 100 on the Pirates. They will win very easily.

Now that we’re two weeks into district play (longer for or 4-4A schools), it’s easier to see come patterns emerge.

Unless Iowa Park can upset Bowie or Burkburnett, it looks like those two schools and Graham will be the three 6-3A representatives. I really thought there wouldn’t be as much seperation between some of those games (IP-Hirschi; Vernon-Bowie, etc.), but this district seems to be getting pretty clear.

Nocona-Henrietta looks like to be pretty big coming up, and if Henrietta beats City View this week, then City View-Nocona is probably for a playoff spot in Week 10.

But one district got tossed for a loop. Good ole 4-4A, which saw WFHS whip district-leading Little Elm 49-21. Now the Coyotes have legitimate playoff hopes if they can upset either Lake Dallas or Rider down the stretch. And with their offense, it wouldn’t be all that surprising.

District 4-4A has been pretty fun to track this season — I really think everyone except maybe Denton Ryan is better than a year ago, and Ryan is still dang good.

Other thoughts from the weekend:

* Uh, Seymour? How do you lose to Electra, almost lose to one-win Haskell and then knock off Stamford? Six turnovers and some timely big plays had a lot to do with it.

Huge win for the Panthers, and if they get by Olney, it sets up next week as the 4-A Div. I title game when Albany comes to town.

* In 8-A Div. II, wake me up when Munday and Windthorst play. Not a ton of intrigue in that race right now.

* I may blog about it more later in the week, but don’t think that Henrietta — which stunk it up against Holliday — can’t beat City View. That should be a heck of a game.

* Good wins for Graham, Bowie, City View, Nocona, Seymour and WFHS. Tough losses for Jacksboro and Vernon.

* These next two weeks are going to be more exciting that the first two. Not a whole lot of good games opening district, but look at Oct. 28:

Burkburnett at Graham (big 6-3A implications);  City View at Holliday (could determine 3-2A title); Henrietta at Nocona (big 3-2A playoff implications); Albany at Seymour (will decide 4-A title); and Windthorst at Munday (will decide 8-A title). And I didn’t even mention IP at Bowie. Why do these games all have to be the same week?

Well, two changes actually. The first one is that while the website says I won the tiebreaker after getting 13 picks right, it was actually Jeff Gregg who won on the tiebreaker. He was closer to the Windthorst score than I was. It helped us to both get the Nocona pick right.

But the main change at the top is in the overall standings. I finally caught AreaFootballFan after picking up three games on him this week. Here’s the season standings:

1) Me — 97

2) AreaFOotballFan — 96

3) One-Legged Fade 41 — 94

4) Keystoner — 92

Always one of my favorite things to look at this time of year is pigskinprep.com’s “How They Would Finish.” Basically, the website plays out the rest of the regular season and then the playoffs based on each school’s rating.

Here’s what they have (as of ratings taken before Friday’s games:

4A Div. I

* Rider loses by Frenship by 1.

3A Div. I

* Burkburnett loses to Abilene Wylie by 11 

3A Div. II

* Bowie loses to Brownwood by 9

* Graham loses to Snyder by 24

2A Div. II

* Holliday receives bye; beats Coahoma by 15; beats Crawford by 5; loses to Idalou by 18

* City View beats Hico by 4; loses to Idalou by 31

* Henrietta loses to Crawford by 14

 A Div. I

* Quanah loses to Canadian by 30

* Seymour beats New Deal by 5; loses to Panhandle by 5

A Div. II

* Windthorst receives bye; beats Van Horn by 25; beats Bronte by 27; beats Munday by 7; beats Wellington by 16; pick ‘em against Tenaha in title game.

* Munday beats Ralls by 44; beats Iraan by 14; beats McCamey by 20; loses to Windthorst by 7

* Electra beats Crosbyton by 5; loses to Bronte by 12

Six-Man Division I

* Throckmorton beats Zephyr by 24; beats Walnut Springs by 37; beats Gordon by 29; beats Rochelle by 13; pick ‘em against Ira in title game.

* Crowell loses to Follett by 5.

Six-Man Division II

* Bryson beats Trindad by 3; Strawn beats Bryson by 9.

* Milford beats Forestburg by 43.

* Newcastle beats Rule by 50; loses to Milford by 6.

Four more weeks left to go in the regular season. Here’s a quick look at our area picks:

WFHS at Little Elm – I can see a lot of point scored in this game by both teams. But I think Little Elm (who ran the ball for 440 yards against Rider) will have more success on the ground than WFHS will have through the air. Lobos are the pick.

Hirschi at Burkburnett – District 6-3A’s best offense by far against the worst defense. Can’t see the Huskies keeping this one close.

Iowa Park at Graham – I expect the Steers to get back on track this week. Although I expected them to do the same thing last week. IP will turn this into a ground-it-out affair and has a solid defense, so a few Graham mistakes could cost them. Still, I like the Steers in a lowe-scoring game.

Vernon at Bowie – Kind of like the 6-3A game above. I like the Jackrabbits, but I think it can be low-scoring and that Vernon will have a chance, especially if the Lions can limit mistakes. Bowie by 7.

Henrietta at Holliday – I’ll be out at this one, and I’d like to see a close game. It’s always fun if it’s close. But I think the Eagles have too many weapons and I can see at least a two-touchdown win.

Jacksboro at City View – Mustangs just have too many weapons and will have to turn it over a bunch to give Jacksboro a chance.

Alvord at Nocona – Call me crazy, but I’m still high on Nocona. They need their QB Hayden Hill to play (he did not against Holliday last week), but this is a winnable game for them. It’s huge too because both teams are 0-1.

Olney at Albany – Lions in a blowout. However many they want.

Stamford at Seymour – I can’t see the Panthers winning this one after a loss to Electra and a near-loss to Haskell. Stamford wins in a game that should feature a lot of points.

Petrolia at Valley View – I like the Eagles in this one, although a Petrolia victory would give them a solid chance to make the playoffs.

Windthorst at Archer City – Trojans should have no problems in this one. At least four TDs should seperate the two.

Perrin-Whitt at Electra – Tigers in a blowout.

It wasn’t too crazy of an opening week of district play for most of our area districts. Lots of predictable scores, although there was at least one shocker.

Bowie’s takedown of Graham was absolutely huge for the Jackrabbits. It’s way too early to forecast how 6-3A will play out. But Bowie’s next three games are: vs. Vernon, at Hirschi, vs. Iowa Park.

If they could win two of those three, the Jackrabbits will most likely be a playoff team. And this is a must-win game for Graham coming up at home against Iowa Park.

Other thoughts from last week:

* Bowie was the only team to win its home game out of the 10 I mentioned in my picks last week. But Haskell almost pulled off a huge upset over Seymour.

* Best game was definitely Rider-Ryan. Wished I could have seen the whole thing. And again, a great crowd at Memorial Stadium.

* Can I change my Vernon pick for the last playoff team in 6-3A? Is it too late? Just too many mistakes the Lions made against Burkburnett.

* If you haven’t seen Devin Chafin in person yet, you should. He’s a stud.

* Big win for Iowa Park, which overpowered Hirschi by running it down the Huskies’ throat. Not sure if the Hawks can do it against Graham, though.

* Not as surprising as Seymour’s close call, but it should be noted that Henrietta was losing in the fourth quarter to Jacksboro. Not sure if that means the Bearcats are not as good as I thought or if it means the Tigers are better. Could be an interesting 3-2A race.

* I knew Munday would beat Electra pretty good, but the Moguls pretty much steamrolled them.

* You don’t want to go 0-2 in district. Very rarely does a team dig out of that hole. So that makes Alvord-Nocona pretty huge. And as far as I’m concerned, Graham (vs. IP), Vernon (at Bowie) and Jacksboro (at City View) are playing to still stay alive.

* Not many games I’m looking forward to this week, but Henrietta-Holliday is always kind of fun, although I’ll be surprised if the Eagles don’t win by double digits.

With a lot of games being somewhat predictable, seven people got at least 12 of the 14 picks right this week. I got 12 myself.

But the only person to get 13 right was One-Legged Fade 41, whose only miss was on the Graham-Bowie game.

Here are this week’s season standings:

1. AreaFootballFan — 86

2. Me — 84

3. One-Legged Fade 41 — 83

4. Keystoner — 81

If you ever watch ESPN during college football season, you’re aware that they always try to label certain weeks as “Rivalry Weekend” or “Road Test Weekend” and so on.

Well, this week as most of our area districts open, I’m calling this “Road Trip Weekend.” Why? Because of the 11 remaining 11-man games we have going on, I’d say the favorite in 10 of them is the road team. The only one who isn’t is Electra at Munday.

I’m picking all 10 road teams to win, but be aware of the home teams jumping out and pulling off an upset. Just look at last night. I didn’t stay the whole game between Ryan at Rider (had the little kiddo with me), but the crowd on the Rider side was pretty awesome and the Raiders fed off that and nearly beat the No. 2 team in 4A (although as I’ve said before, Denton Ryan is probably Top 10, but is a little over-ranked at No. 2).

So we’re going to do my picks a little different this week. I’m going to list the 10 games in the order in which upsets are most to least likely to happen. Here we go:

1. Iowa Park at Hirschi – Not a big upset if the Huskies win. Just really hard for me to pick them after I saw IP play Holliday to basically a draw, and then the Eagles overwhelmed Hirschi last week by 30. It’s a matchup between 6-3A’s worst offense during non-district against the worst defense.

2. Burkburnett at Vernon – Some will think this game (which I will be at) is too high up on the list. But I’ve seen too many close Burk-Vernon games in my time here. The Lions had an extra week to prepare and are playing really well on defense. Should be an exciting one.

3. City View at Alvord – The Mustangs haven’t won a lot of big district road games through the years (they had a big 2009 win against Nocona), but they have the big-play weapons to win this. City View has to cut down on turnovers/penalties though.

4. Archer City at Perrin-Whitt – The Wildcats should end their 5-game losing streak tonight. But nothing is guaranteed, especially if some AC guys are still out.

5. Graham at Bowie – Tobin made a good point on our podcast the other day. If you have to play Graham, now is the time to do so. Steers should still come out on top.

6. Quanah at White Deer – No idea about White Deer. All I know is the Indians beat them handily last year.

7. Henrietta at Jacksboro – This is the first of the games where I believe an upset probably won’t happen at all. If the home team wins any of these last four, I would be pretty shocked.

8. Holliday at Nocona – I just think Holliday is a notch above everyone else in 3-2A.

9. Muenster at Petrolia – The Pirates are a solid bunch, but not in the Hornets’ league.

10. Seymour at Haskell – The Panthers will be ready to explode after losing to Electra last week. This one shouldn’t be close.

As promised, although later than I would have liked, here are my thoughts and predictions of the area’s districts with comments about how I’ve switched on some picks since two-a-days.

4-4A

1. Denton Ryan; 2. Little Elm; 3. Rider; 4. Lake Dallas; 5. The Colony; 6. WFHS; 7. Denton

Comments: I had the same four teams making the playoffs in the preseason, but I had Rider second and Little Elm fourth. This district has been too crazy after two weeks to know what’s going to happen. I could see Lake Dallas beating Little Elm and causing a three-way tie. I had WFHS ahead of The Colony back in August; obviously they are behind them now after losing, 45-37.

6-3A

1. Graham; 2. Burkburnett; 3. Vernon; 4. Iowa Park; 5. Bowie; 6. Hirschi

Comments: If Graham is healthy when it plays Burk, then it’s the team to beat in my opinion. If not, then the Bulldogs will win. As I’ve said and written before, 3-6 is totally a scramble. I had IP here in August, I’m going with Vernon now. But I don’t feel good about it. Bowie could also make a run at it and I wouldn’t be surprised.

3-2A Div. II

1. Holliday; 2. Henrietta; 3. City View; 4. Nocona; 5. Alvord; 6. Jacksboro

Comments: The biggest difference between now and two months ago is I had Nocona-Alvord-City View in that order I believe. I feel pretty good about the first and last teams — it’s the ones in the middle that could go either way. Not totally sold on Henrietta, but they always produce. And I could see Nocona getting in if they’re healthy.

2-A Div. I

1. Panhandle; 2. Clarendon; 3. Quanah; 4. Lockney

Comments: There isn’t that much difference between the top three teams. I had Quanah in the same spot back in August, but had Clarendon winning. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Indians finished higher, but I feel OK with them there.

4-A Div. I

1. Albany; 2. Stamford; 3. Seymour; 4. Olney; 5. Haskell

Comments: Same order except I had Stamford beating the Lions in August. Both are 6-0 and have been impressive, but I’m still wondering how Archer City played the Bulldogs as close as they did last week. And is Stamford QB Hagen Hutchinson fully healthy? I have no idea. Seymour will end up right where I thought they would and where they did last year.

5-A Div. I

1. Muenster; 2. Collinsville; 3. Valley View; 4. Lindsay; 5. Petrolia; 6. Chico

Comments: Didn’t pick this district in August,  but I think Muenster wins it. It could be an entertaining race — should be a lot of fun to see where Petrolia falls out. Pretty tough district.

8-A Div. II

1. Windthorst; 2. Munday; 3. Electra; 4. Archer City; 5. Perrin-Whitt

Comments: I had Electra and Archer City swapped two months ago. Not going to rule out the Wildcats, but I like how the Tigers have played the past couple weeks. Looking forward to Windthorst-Munday in late October (and kinda peeved it’s the same week as Burk-Graham).

I’ll try to have Week 7 predicitons put up tomorrow. Not a whole lot of great games this week, but there could be an upset pulled or two. And check out my podcast with Tobin going over all the districts.

As you all know, we don’t give away t-shirts anymore for winning Sack Zach. If we did, we’d have to dole out two after last weekend.

That’s because CPriddy and david_clubb both won with 12 of 14 picks and then had the same tiebreaker. I got 10 right after missing the Burk-Decatur pick right off the bat.

And everyone had Seymour picking Electra, so no one got that one right.

Here are the season standings:

1. AreaFootballFan — 74

2. Me — 72

3. One-Legged Fade 41 — 70

4. Keystoner — 69