- My district predictions
Thursday, October 6th, 2011
As promised, although later than I would have liked, here are my thoughts and predictions of the area’s districts with comments about how I’ve switched on some picks since two-a-days.
4-4A
1. Denton Ryan; 2. Little Elm; 3. Rider; 4. Lake Dallas; 5. The Colony; 6. WFHS; 7. Denton
Comments: I had the same four teams making the playoffs in the preseason, but I had Rider second and Little Elm fourth. This district has been too crazy after two weeks to know what’s going to happen. I could see Lake Dallas beating Little Elm and causing a three-way tie. I had WFHS ahead of The Colony back in August; obviously they are behind them now after losing, 45-37.
6-3A
1. Graham; 2. Burkburnett; 3. Vernon; 4. Iowa Park; 5. Bowie; 6. Hirschi
Comments: If Graham is healthy when it plays Burk, then it’s the team to beat in my opinion. If not, then the Bulldogs will win. As I’ve said and written before, 3-6 is totally a scramble. I had IP here in August, I’m going with Vernon now. But I don’t feel good about it. Bowie could also make a run at it and I wouldn’t be surprised.
3-2A Div. II
1. Holliday; 2. Henrietta; 3. City View; 4. Nocona; 5. Alvord; 6. Jacksboro
Comments: The biggest difference between now and two months ago is I had Nocona-Alvord-City View in that order I believe. I feel pretty good about the first and last teams — it’s the ones in the middle that could go either way. Not totally sold on Henrietta, but they always produce. And I could see Nocona getting in if they’re healthy.
2-A Div. I
1. Panhandle; 2. Clarendon; 3. Quanah; 4. Lockney
Comments: There isn’t that much difference between the top three teams. I had Quanah in the same spot back in August, but had Clarendon winning. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Indians finished higher, but I feel OK with them there.
4-A Div. I
1. Albany; 2. Stamford; 3. Seymour; 4. Olney; 5. Haskell
Comments: Same order except I had Stamford beating the Lions in August. Both are 6-0 and have been impressive, but I’m still wondering how Archer City played the Bulldogs as close as they did last week. And is Stamford QB Hagen Hutchinson fully healthy? I have no idea. Seymour will end up right where I thought they would and where they did last year.
5-A Div. I
1. Muenster; 2. Collinsville; 3. Valley View; 4. Lindsay; 5. Petrolia; 6. Chico
Comments: Didn’t pick this district in August, but I think Muenster wins it. It could be an entertaining race — should be a lot of fun to see where Petrolia falls out. Pretty tough district.
8-A Div. II
1. Windthorst; 2. Munday; 3. Electra; 4. Archer City; 5. Perrin-Whitt
Comments: I had Electra and Archer City swapped two months ago. Not going to rule out the Wildcats, but I like how the Tigers have played the past couple weeks. Looking forward to Windthorst-Munday in late October (and kinda peeved it’s the same week as Burk-Graham).
I’ll try to have Week 7 predicitons put up tomorrow. Not a whole lot of great games this week, but there could be an upset pulled or two. And check out my podcast with Tobin going over all the districts.
Share - Cpriddy, david_clubb tie last week’s Sack Zach
Thursday, October 6th, 2011
As you all know, we don’t give away t-shirts anymore for winning Sack Zach. If we did, we’d have to dole out two after last weekend.
That’s because CPriddy and david_clubb both won with 12 of 14 picks and then had the same tiebreaker. I got 10 right after missing the Burk-Decatur pick right off the bat.
And everyone had Seymour picking Electra, so no one got that one right.
Here are the season standings:
1. AreaFootballFan — 74
2. Me — 72
3. One-Legged Fade 41 — 70
4. Keystoner — 69
Share - Week 5 predictions
Friday, September 30th, 2011
Before I delve into this week’s predictions, I’ll mention a couple things about last night’s 52-27 loss that Burkburnett suffered.
I know the Eagles are good, but I think the Bulldogs didn’t play real well last night. This was my first time to watch them in person, and the defense resembled last year. Before tonight, in most of the games it had been better in 2011, but not last night.
I don’t really know what to expect in 6-3A now. If Graham gets its guys back, I think the Steers are the favorite. If not, then Burkburnett has a slim edge but is by no means unbeatable. Either way, it’s worth saying again that 6-3A is down this year.
Denton at WFHS – Denton is a formidable opponent capable of winning this game, but I think WFHS has more weapons and can make a few bigger plays to stay alive in 4-4A.
Rider at Lake Dallas – Lake Dallas probably has a more dangerous offense than Little Elm, who scored 51 points on the Raiders last week. I could definitely see Rider bouncing back with its best game of the season, but I’ll go with the home team.
Hirschi at Holliday – My pick is the Eagles, but as always in this matchup, if the Huskies can keep mistakes down and hit on a couple big plays, then they’ll have a chance in the end.
Bridgeport at Graham – The Steers could bounce back, but I can’t pick a team who: a) had 63 yards of offense last week; b) I couldn’t tell you who their QB is going to be; and c) has lost three straight and is playing an explosive team in the Bulls.
Windthorst at Henrietta – There aren’t many teams left on Windthorst’s schedule that can give it a game for more than two quarters. Munday is one of them, and the Bearcats are probably the other. I like the Trojans by 21 or more.
Jacksboro at Haskell – Neither team has looked that strong, so I’ll go with the bigger classification school. Jacksboro is the choice.
Seymour at Electra – The Tigers are much improved, and I think the score could be a little closer than in year’s past, but I expect the Panthers to win by double digits.
Stamford at Archer City – This one won’t be pretty. Stamford by 30 at least.
Quanah at Munday – I like the Moguls here. They have a few more weapons than the Indians. But I could see Quanah hanging around for a while.
Olney vs. Mason at Baird – The Punchers by as many as they want.
Era at Petrolia – If I remember correctly, the Pirates won this by a bunch last year. I expect more of the same this time around.
Share - Looking at last week
Wednesday, September 28th, 2011
I’m a little bit late at looking at last week, but I thought there were some interesting things that went on.
* First, Andy and I talk about it in this week’s podcast, but I think the balance has shifted in 6-3A a little. If the district started today, I’d have to give Burkburnett the nod over Graham.
Part of that had to do with Graham’s dismal output in Borger (63 yards). And the Steers are hurting right now in different places. If you told me Brian Sides and Garrett Johnston would be healthy for the entire district, my mind might change. We’ll see. But I still think Burk-Graham is for the 6-3A title.
* Brutal week for 6-3A besides the Bulldogs. The other four teams managed a combined eight points in losses. Can’t remember this 3A district being as down before. I bet Pampa wishes it was in it.
* Crazy, crazy 4-4A opening week (also discussed in-depth on podcast). We’ll have to see if Rider and WFHS bounce back this Friday.
* The two biggest non-district area games turned out to be the best. Burkburnett won on the last play in a thriller against Mineral Wells, while City View almost came back from 25 down at the half.
* I think the Mustangs are a playoff team. I would feel better saying that if they’d had won on Friday, but it’s hard for me to pick Alvord, Nocona and Jacksboro ahead of them right now at least.
* A game that interests me this week is Quanah at Munday. Can the Indians hang with the explosive Moguls? A dominant Munday win will bode well for the start of district.
* It’s still hard for me to think the Moguls will gave Windthorst a real close game. Guess we’ll have to wait and see in a month.
* Archer City is so beat up and struggling, it’s tough for me to think the Wildcats will make the playoffs. I’d pick Electra right now if I had to. Didn’t see Olney beating them by 20+. Makes that Petrolia win over AC not seem as big of a deal now.
* Next week I’ll blog my thought on each district, making predictions now and compare them to what I picked in late August. I think there will be some changes, but not too many.
Share - Jeff Gregg wins this week’s Sack Zach
Monday, September 26th, 2011
No tiebreaker was needed this week as Jeff Gregg, the Seymour radio announcer who taped a podcast a couple weeks ago with me, won it by getting 13 of 16 games correct.
I was in a three-way tie with AreaFootballFan and One-Legged Fade 41 for second place with 12 right. Everyone missed the Rider pick, and only one person had Olney winning.
Here are your season totals:
1. AreaFootballFan — 64
2t. Me — 62
2t. One-Legged Fade 41 — 62
4. Keystoner — 59
Share - Week 4 predictions
Friday, September 23rd, 2011
Well, we’ve got District 4-4A starting this week and a bunch of teams’ last non-district games before the bye.
Not a ton of great matchups on paper, but there could still be some great games. Here are my picks:
Little Elm at Rider — I understand Little Elm’s offense can be pretty impressive. I also understand the Lobos are probably the third or fourth best team Rider has faced (Cooper, Amarillo and maybe Kennedale). Rider wins by double digits.
WFHS at The Colony — The Coyotes made an impressive defensive turnaround last week. But The Colony is much, much better than Bishop Lynch. This is a huge game for WFHS, but I just don’t think it has enough. The Colony by 12.
Mineral Wells at Burkburnett — A total toss-up. I’ll lean toward the Rams but a Burk win wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Decatur at Iowa Park — I like Decatur here, but a Hawks win wouldn’t surprise me.
Graham at Borger — The bus ride there will be long, but I’m sure the Steers are hungry to get out on the field
Vernon at Pampa — Hard to pick against Pampa after it already has beaten Iowa Park and Hirschi. Bet they wish they were in 6-3A this year.
Bowie at Whitesboro — I should probably pick Bowie after its big win a week ago, but this Whitesboro team isn’t too shabby. And it was a close game last year.
City View at Muenster Sacred Heart — A very tough game for the Mustangs, but one I think they can win if they play well.
Nocona at Paradise — I was all set to go with the Indians, but I think they’ll need all their guns against Paradise. And with Tate Fenoglio possibly missing offensive snaps because of an arm injury, I’ll give the edge to the Panthers.
Haskell at Quanah — Indians should win this tune-up easily before facing off with Munday next week.
Archer City at Olney — Depending on who comes back for Archer City, this game could be close. The Wildcats will win it, though.
Windthorst at Petrolia — Trojans are playing really well right now, not that that’s a surprise. They’ll win easily, even though the Pirates are better this year.
De Leon at Seymour — I have no idea who’s going to be Seymour’s QB tonight. I have a very good idea that it won’t matter. Panthers by a bunch.
Munday at Roscoe — The Plowboys were a formidable opponent a few years ago, but Roscoe isn’t what it used to be. Moguls by at least four scores.
Electra vs. West Texas Stinnett — Electra’s non-district schedule gets tougher as we go along. Stinnett is another tough one (it scored 70 in this game last year), and I’ll be surprised if it stays close.
Share - Thoughts after Week 3
Monday, September 19th, 2011
Raise your hand if you saw the WFHS shutout coming? I see no hands raised. You’d be lying if you said you did.
The Coyotes’ 23-0 victory over Bishop Lynch was probably the most surprising result from Week 3, simple because the Coyotes were a few days removed from giving up 70 points to Frisco Wakeland.
The win did come at the perfect time for WFHS. It opens district this week against The Colony is a game that is important for any kind of Coyote playoff chances.
Other weekend thoughts:
* Throckmorton and City View are the area’s only two unbeatens left. The first one is not surprising. The second one is.
* Riding the winless train are Iowa Park, Olney, Gold-Burg and Christ Academy.
* I really think Windthorst can score 50 points on mostly anybody if they play their starters past halftime. Sixty-five against Seymour was pretty impressive.
* The possible third-place team in 6-3A this week (remember, I’m giving Graham and Burkburnett nods) is Bowie, who had a nice OT win at Breckenridge. Only 6-3A victory this week as four others lost decisively and Graham had a bye.
* Glad to hear Burkburnett’s Isaiha Barnes is doing better after a scary trip to the ER. For more details, read the story published on our website. It seems like Burkburnett has had more serious injuries than everyone combined the past 3-4 years.
* District is coming real soon (this week for 4-4A), but it can’t come soon enough. I’m tired of comparing scores to size up district. Want the real ones to count soon.
* Good wins for WFHS, Bowie, Nocona, City View, Quanah, Jacksboro and Newcastle. Tough losses for Iowa Park (which still can’t seem to make a PAT), Holliday, Seymour and Archer City.
Share - Keystoner wins “Sack Zach” in tiebreaker
Monday, September 19th, 2011
It came down to a tiebreaker in this week’s “Sack Zach” as Keystoner won by picking 13 of 15 games correctly, edging out AreaFootballFan.
I was right behind them with 12 correct (along with three others), missing the WFHS, Bowie and Stamford wins. And everybody missed the Bowie-Breckenridge game.
The season totals are:
1. AreaFootballFan 52
2. Me 50
3. One-Legged Fade 41 49
4. Keystoner 48
Share - I beat the field in last week’s “Sack Zach”
Monday, September 12th, 2011
Well, it rarely happens, but I was able to hold off all of about 20 people who picked last week’s games, missing only the Graham-Abilene Wylie matchup.
One-Legged Fade 41 and David CLubb both got 13 right, and Fade 41 actually only was wrong on one game as he didn’t get the Thursday Decatur pick in time. He missed Quanah-Anson.
Here are the season totals:
1. AreaFootballFan: 39 (don’t forget — he’s the defending champ)
2t. One-Legged Fade 41 and Me: 38
4. Keystoner: 35
Share - Looking back at Week 2
Monday, September 12th, 2011
A lot to talk about after the third week of high school football is in the books.
Not so many surprising scores this week (I only missed Graham in “Sack Zach” – speaking of which I hope to straighten out the bugs with that pretty soon), but still some interesting things to dissect. Here are my thoughts:
* I bet I don’t see a more defensive game this year than the 397 yards of offense that Iowa Park and Holliday combined for. Somebody asked me if it was more good defense or bad offense. I definitely think more good defense, although both offenses have improvements to make. And IP needs to start making PATs.
* I have no doubt Scott Ponder will get things going soon, but it’s hard to figure out the Hawks’ identity on offense. Are they a running team or passing team? Are they more of a screen passing team or do they prefer taking more shots downfield? What do they do best?
* On last week’s predictions, I said it’d be hard for me to believe WFHS can go 0-10. I might have to rethink that after the Coyotes gave up 70 points and more than 600 yards of total offense in a loss to Frisco Wakeland.
* You can read more about this in Wednesday’s 2A/A roundup, but there were some different QBs taking snaps this week than normal. Seymour’s Zach Barton, Archer City’s Weston Wuthrich, Electra’s Tyler Coats and Olney’s Blake Turner all missed Friday with injuries.
* With Seymour, they got a great game from backup QB Tanner Gillispie. But the Seymour coaches reported stats wrong in Saturday’s paper. Gillispie had 290 total yards of offense (rushing/passing), not 290 rushing. Still pretty impressive, though.
* Hard to forecast who makes the playoffs in the 3-2A race besides Holliday right now. Henrietta got creamed by Boyd, and while off to a great start, City View has definitely succeeded with an easier schedule. I was a little surprised Petrolia was tied with the Mustangs in the fourth quarter. Nocona’s looking up, and Alvord is a question mark to me. It is hard for me to see Jacksboro making it, but that’s about the only one.
* After taking care of the ball pretty well against Ponder, it sounded like Hirschi was back to its fumbling ways versus Decatur.
* Really good wins for Vernon, Holliday, Quanah, Seymour, Nocona and Munday.
* Tough losses for Rider, Iowa Park, Electra and Petrolia.
* Looking forward to Windthorst-Seymour this week. It was a great game a year ago, and I expect something along the same lines this time around, too.
Share - New and improved Dick Bivins
Friday, September 9th, 2011
I had not been to Amarillo since David Nelson and Blake Szymanski were Rider Raiders. That Rider team needed a Nelson interception, one of the few times I saw him play defense, to beat Palo Duro in a tight game.
The game between Rider and Amarillo is 38 minutes away from kickoff, but this old Dick Bivins Stadium has a very new feel. The end zone ticket booths and concession stands and walkways have all been upgraded. The press box is another upgrade, although that only matters to myself and Richard Moore, the radio guy. It has a Pennington Field look to it.
Memorial Stadium could use some of these modern upgrades.
It has a chance to make a good first impression on visitors to our city who are involved in high school sports.
Share - Week 2 predictions
Thursday, September 8th, 2011
Well, I managed to bounce back last week after a horrible Week Zero. Maybe it was because I had a week of games to go by. Or maybe because I had less time to stew over my selections. Or maybe I just needed a wakeup call.
Whatever it was, let’s hope I continue the roll for this week, which features a lot of area vs. area matchups. Here are my picks:
Decatur at Hirschi – The Huskies definitely earned their win against Ponder, driving the field to force OT and then making a couple big plays. But Hirschi was a +5 in the turnover department against a fairly new 2A team and still almost lost. Decatur is a lot better than Ponder and should beat the Huskies by double digits.
Frisco Wakeland at WFHS – Nick mentioned in our weekly TRN video that he thought WFHS could go 0-10. I’ll be really surprised if that happens, but I’m picking Wakeland in this one.
Rider at Amarillo – Two tough games already. A 4+ hour drive before the game against a solid 5A team. I just think it’s a little much for the Raiders to handle.
Holliday at Iowa Park – The Hawks are making progress and an IP win here shouldn’t surprise me the least. But the Eagles are the more polished team right now and I like them in a close one (Random thought: I’ve picked against the home team in the two big games I’ve covered — Holliday at Windthorst and Brownwood at Graham — and have been right on both).
Abilene Wylie at Graham – Graham rarely loses at home, having its 12-game streak broken last week. And the Steers haven’t lost to Wylie at Newton Field since 1999. I expect Graham to bounce back.
Childress at Vernon – I know I’ve picked them to win before (against Sweetwater this year; Hirschi last year) but I think the streak ends against Childress, a team who was lucky to beat fellow 6-3A squad Bowie last week.
Jacksboro at Bowie – Not sure how good Bowie is yet, but I do know they crushed the Tigers last year and I expect a big Jackrabbit win this time around.
Petrolia at City View – The Pirates’ win was a big surprise last week, but the Mustangs are on a roll and have more weapons. If Petrolia wins this one, I’ll jump on their bandwagon. Heck, I’ll drive the dang thing. But I like the home team by 10-17.
Boyd at Henrietta – I think Boyd is somewhere in between fellow 5-2A Div. I teams Pottsoboro (who Henrietta lost to) and Paradise (who it beat). Boyd owns this series though and I like them, although a Henrietta win wouldn’t be a shocker.
Archer City at Nocona – Was really interested in this one until both teams laid eggs last week. I think we’ll learn a lot about Nocona in this one. I’ll take the Indians, but I know Josh Castles’ side will be looking to bounce back.
Quanah at Anson – Maybe a trap game for Quanah after a big Hamlin win. All I know is the Indians beat Hamlin, who beat Anson by about 2o to start the year. That’s why I’m taking the Indians.
Seymour vs. Collinsville – I’m high on the Panthers right now, but this is their biggest test yet. I thought it would be a close game last year (Seymour won 46-13), and since I feel that way again, I will go with Seymour.
Olney at Windthorst – Trojans by as many as they want. They scored 70 last year on the Cubs.
Jim Ned at Munday – Moguls are back on track and should take this one easily.
Electra at Alvord – A pretty interesting game, but I think Alvord is the deeper team and they are the pick. Now if Electra wins, that’s a HUGE victory for the Tigers.
Share - Thoughts after Week 1
Tuesday, September 6th, 2011
As I will write in Wednesday’s Class 2A/A roundup, a loss the first week — even if it’s a bad one — is nothing to freak out about.
Petrolia lost real bad to Muenster Sacred Heart in its opener, but bounced back nicely by beating Archer City in the biggest surprise of the week.
Henrietta had a nice recovery and so did Quanah, which put the loss to Memphis behind it and edged Hamlin. So the lesson here is to don’t put much stock in the first week.
Other thoughts from the weekend:
* Sounds like WFHS played one heck of a first half against Lawton Mac, going up 10-0 to start the game. Also sounded like Mac just wore down the Coyotes running the ball in the second half.
* Graham’s QB situation is still one that interests me. Garrett Johnston had a pretty good start before getting hurt trying to make a tackle. Layne Bynum, last year’s starter, looked pretty good late, but with Brownwood up so much, I’m not sure the prevent defense it played didn’t help a little.
* That’s a game Hirschi needed to win badly. It’s good to snap a long road losing streak, even if they needed OT to do it. And Dominique Bobo is locked in as the team’s quarterback.
* Also glad to see Dee Paul back on the field. Concussions aren’t much fun. I was told Devin Chafin suffered one the other night against Bridgeport.
* Speaking of Burkburnett, you used to go to see the Bulldogs play and expect a game that lasts a little more than two hours. Now the games are taking at least three. Who would have thought Burk would have a 200-yard receiver in one game, either?
* After two weeks, District 6-3A is a combined 3-9.
* I know I said at the top that you shouldn’t put too much stock in one game, but after two games, you can sometimes see trends developing. And so it might be a long year for teams like Jacksboro and Olney. Guess we’ll wait and see.
* So my upset pick of Nocona was a bad one, maybe? Can I go and erase that in my predictions blog?
* Great wins by Rider, Henrietta, Petrolia, Quanah, Electra and Hirschi. Tough losses for Bowie, Vernon, Iowa Park, WFHS and Nocona.
Share - Rowdy in Windthorst
Monday, September 5th, 2011
“Windthorst is a heckuva football team and coach (Bill) Green runs a first-class operation,” Lavender said. “The Rowdies were up to the challenge played right with them (21-14) for a half.
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“I love going over there. An opportunity to play under the lights, those hamburgers and sausage links, it was great. But they run that double wing and our guys have never seen that offense before and they play tough and wRowdy in Windthorst
The WFHS junior varsity team, the Rowdies, got a chance to play under the Friday night lights at one of the area’s best venues in Windthorst.
And they were playing one of the state’s best Class A programs. Predictably, the No. 9 Trojans won the game, 54-20, but Lavender loved the experience.
“Windthorst is a heckuva football team and coach (Bill) Green runs a first-class operation,” Lavender said. “The Rowdies were up to the challenge played right with them (21-14) for a half.
“I love going over there. An opportunity to play under the lights, those hamburgers and sausage links, it was great. But they run that double wing and our guys have never seen that offense before and they play tough and wear you down.”
Quarterback Zach Murphy and receiver Corey Robinson highlighted the Rowdies’ big-play attack.
Also, the WFHS freshman black team has more than 100 points in two wins this season. - David Clubb wins second week of ‘Sack Zach’
Monday, September 5th, 2011
A much better week for myself, but it was David Clubb who beat me out in a tiebreaker. We both got 14 of the 18 games correct (it looked like we had the same picks) but David bested me on the tiebreaker.
Shogirl deserves some credit — she was the only one who picked Petrolia to beat Archer City. Nice upset pick.
Here are the current standings after two weeks:
1. AreaFootballFan 27
2. One-legged Fade 41 25
3t. Keystoner 24
3t. Zach Duncan 24
Share - Week 1 predictions
Friday, September 2nd, 2011
Well, I couldn’t have been more off on last week’s picks. I think I’m last in the newspaper and a few people beat me on “Sack Zach.” But I’m ready for a comeback.
It started last night by picking Lawton Mac to beat WFHS. Let’s see if it continues tonight.
* Kennedale at Rider — What do the Raiders have for an encore after their comeback? My gut says another win against a pretty good 3A team. Kennedale isn’t shabby, but it isn’t Abilene Cooper, either. Rider by 10.
* Hirschi at Ponder — What are research guys (meaning me and Andy) poured through past seasons, we realized Hirschi hadn’t won on the road since Diamond Hill-Jarvis in 2007. I was there, and the thing I remember most is going through a metal detector when I entered the stadium. Ponder is a start-up 2A program that shouldn’t hang with the Huskies, unless Hirschi fumbles in double digits again. Hirschi by 14.
* Brownwood at Graham — I’ve learned DB Brian Sides is out with an ankle injury, and I also feel a little curious about the Steers’ QB situation. They’re going with the hot hand, so I guess junior Garrett Johnston gets the nod. The Lions aren’t nearly the team they were a year ago, but I like their chance of winning this toss-up just a little bit better.
* Bridgeport at Burkburnett — The Bulldogs could make another statement win in 2011 by beating Bridgeport, but the Bulls have had their number the past three years. Probably another shootout, but the guess here is Burk barely comes up short.
* Iowa Park at Pilot Point — Here’s a fun little fact. I picked three teams last week (IP, Vernon and Henrietta) that combined to score ZERO points. The Hawks’ loss to Pampa may have been the biggest surprise in Week Zero, and until they show me some offense, I have to pick the home team.
* Bowie at Childress — The Jackrabbits get a much easier team this week, and I like their chances of handing Dylan Stark his first win.
* Vernon at Altus — I’m not going to sit here and tell you I know how good Altus is. Because I don’t and the Oklahoma season starts tonight. I do know this — Altus has won this game the past couple years and Vernon is 1-20 since 2009. Advantage Altus.
* Breckenridge at Holliday — I really believe in the Eagles this year, and they should be fired up after how bad the Buckaroos won last year (42-10). Still, something tells me to go with Breckenridge.
* Paradise at Henrietta — The Bearcats over the past three games: 6 points in the season finale against Alvord that decided district seeding; 0 points in a playoff loss to Hamilton; 0 points in the 2011 opener vs. Pottsboro. That adds up to six reasons why I like Paradise.
* Nocona at Muenster — If I had to pick an upset game, this one would be it. The Indians had a pretty good showing against Whitewright. Muenster is very talented and I’ll play it safe and choose the Hornets since they are at home, but a Nocona win wouldn’t shock me.
* Godley at Jacksboro — This should be an easy Godley runaway. Still a little surprised how bad Jacksboro played in the first half against Seymour last week.
* Perrin-Whitt at City View — The Mustangs by however many they want. You know it’s bad when Chico beats you by 31 points.
* Petrolia at Archer City — A Wildcats rout should be expected.
* WFHS JV at Windthorst — Trojans win this one going away. We’ll see how much QB Joe Hoegger plays.
* Munday at Olney — Even if Dee Paul doesn’t play, it’s still tough to think the Cubs have a good shot at winning after losing at Tolar last week.
* Seymour at Lubbock Christian — Panthers win big.
* Hamlin at Quanah — This will be a tough one for the Indians. I can see the Pied Pipers pulling away.
* Memphis at Electra — An intersting game after Memphis beat Quanah last week. I liked what the Tigers did in the opener, so I’ll stay with them.
Share - Thoughts after a crazy Week Zero
Monday, August 29th, 2011
Well, we’ve got one week in the book, and what a crazy week it was. A comeback for the ages, a game-saving tackle, a lot of statement wins and some offenses that really struggled.
So here are my quick thoughts on the week that was:
* Nick pretty much summed it up best in his Sunday column, but what a comeback by Rider on Friday night. Down four TDs in the second half — that’s incredible. I expected good things from the Raiders this year, but this definitely sets the bar even higher.
* The two other games I expected to be intriguing (WFHS-Burkburnett and Holliday-Windthorst) were. Both were pretty exciting. Graham-Mineral Wells sounded like a very good game as well. I always like when good matchups live up to the hype.
* I feel somewhat comfortable saying if Joe Hoegger starts at quarterback, then Windthorst probably beats Holliday. But I feel 100 percent comfortable in saying if the Trojans had their starting QB and Holliday did not, the Trojans would have won by more than seven points. Jacob Cole played a great game.
* I know offenses in general can start out sluggish. But there were a few that really struggled to move the ball: Iowa Park, Henrietta and Vernon were shut out. Petrolia and Quanah only scored one TD, although it looked like the Indians racked up a bunch of yards. They didn’t have many turnovers, so I’m guessing a few lengthy drives stalled.
* After watching Hirschi fumble 11 times (losing five of them) in a 52-point loss to Sanger, I’m going to try to look at the bright side for the Huskies: 1) Sanger might be the best team they play all year; 2) They probably won’t face a Div. I QB again; 3) They can’t fumble any more than they did vs. the Indians; 4) There’s nowhere to go but up and 5) They get the perfect bounceback opponent Friday in 2A Ponder.
* I know it’s a loss, but Nocona looked like it played well against Whitewright in the second half after spotting them a couple TDs. Tate Fenoglio had a huge game, too. I think this bodes well for the Indians in the future.
* Really good wins for Rider, Burkburnett, Graham, Holliday, City View, Seymour, Archer City and Electra.
* Tough losses for WFHS, Jacksboro, Iowa Park, Henrietta, Olney and Quanah.
* If I had to pick the three biggest surprises (excluding the Rider comeback) from last Friday, I’d say: Pampa beating IP at home by 20 (think the Hawks miss Lee Clubb?); Quanah losing 25-6 to a Memphis program that has been down the past few years (but maybe is better this year) and Munday’s blowout loss to Stamford for the second straight year. Pretty incredible how they scored three or four TDs of at least 80 yards.
Share - AreaFootballFan wins first week of “Sack Zach”
Monday, August 29th, 2011
AreaFootballFan, who is the reigning “Sack Zach” winner from a year ago, started off on the right foot in Week Zero by getting 14 of 18 games correct.
Only one pick behind him was One-Legged Fade 41 with 13. I had a tough week (I think I’m last in the newspaper periscope) and only got 10 right. That puts me in a four-way tie for fourth place, but luckily there’s a lot of football picks still to be made.
We’re not giving away prizes this year (corporate legal frowned on that), but keep playing this upcoming week to see how many others can “Sack Zach.”
Share - Thoughts from TRN Kickoff Classic
Friday, August 26th, 2011
* First off, what a game. I bet I may not cover one as good as that all year. Two teams that hit hard, played every down like it was their last and kept coming up with big plays. Just when you thought Holliday had the game in hand, Windthorst answered. Expect both of these teams to be playing in mid-December.
* There were three interceptions, but it was pretty clean (only two fumbles, neither which were lost) for an opener. I think there were six total penalties, although another four or so were declined.
* The Trojans’ offensive line did a pretty impressive job. And so did fullback Braydon Ingram, who is new to the starting lineup and added some punch up the middle. Holliday’s Jacob Cole looked dynamite on offense, as well.
* I was a little surprised with how the Trojans were able to move the ball in the second half, but they made the right adjustments. Losing D.J. Boyd hurt the Eagles’ run defense, but Windthorst was still impressive.
* Windthorst would have gone for the two-point conversion if they would have scored at the end. I like the call, even though it never happened.
* Kellen Green threw some nice passes and probably would have had about 30 rushing yards if sacks weren’t counted in his total (he finished with 5 yards). Never seemed to look like he got on the same page with 6-7 Dylan Stallcup. It probably kept Windthorst out of the end zone in the first half.
* It wouldn’t surprise me if Windthorst ran the table, especially when Joe Hoegger gets healthy. And while it will be harder for Holliday to do so, I can bet you they are better than last year’s 2-3 mark heading into district.
* On another front, Munday’s Dee Paul left Thursday’s 47-13 loss to Stamford with a concussion. While that’s unfortunate, when I’d heard he was injured, I thought it might be season-ending. Don’t know why, but I did. Glad it’s not.
* Munday did lose lineman Jorge Rangel for the year with a torn ACL. Can’t imagine a worse opener for the Moguls. A couple injuries, lots of turnovers and a few huge plays by Stamford. The Bulldogs have now won this game twice in a blowout.
Share - Week Zero predictions
Thursday, August 25th, 2011
Next week we’ll start looking at every area game, but this week we’re going to keep it short and sweet. Besides, this is always when it’s difficult to predict a whole lot anyway.
So here are the best games involving area games, beginning tonight with the Kickoff Classic:
* Holliday at Windthorst — If Trojans QB Joe Hoegger was healthy, maybe I’d feel differently. But it’s going to be tough for the Trojans to move the ball against Holliday’s defense. The Eagles have more depth (which matters now since kickoff will be 100 degrees) and I can see them barely winning a low-scoring game.
* Munday vs. Stamford — This is Abilene’s big area game on Thursday night. Stamford easily crushed the Moguls a year ago, but Munday is more experienced now. Plus, who wants to bet against the Moguls at Shotwell? I’ve seen them edge a very good Roscoe team in a shootout during Munday’s 2007 state title run, and I’ve seen Kenyin Thompson scored from midfield on the game’s final play in the postseason to win the game. So Munday is the pick.
FRIDAY
* WFHS at Burkburnett — Another high-scoring game? Wouldn’t surprise me. We’ll see if the Coyotes can make stops on defense against a Div. I player in Devin Chafin. I think the Coyotes may force enough turnovers to hold on, but this one is a coin-flip for sure. Should be less than the 94 points the teams game up in the 2010 meeting, though.
* Abilene Cooper at Rider — I expect Rider’s defense to keep it in enough games until the offense, led by J.T. Barrett, finds its footing. But any time you play a big 5A school like Cooper, you’re the underdog. That’s what I feel about this one, although Rider will hang tough in the loss.
* Graham at Mineral Wells — Looking forward to seeing how this one plays out. Both won their districts last year, both are favored to repeat in 2011. Both have pretty solid QBs, but I give a small edge to Graham’s defense. Steers win a close one.
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